kos

The old adage that “if it’s too good to be true, it likely is,” definitely applies in this war, as I spent much of the day trying to verify fantastical claims from both sides. I even had to enlist Mark Sumner at one point to help me sort through one rumor of a major Ukrainian breakthrough toward Mariupol. Turns out, no one is making big sweeping gains. It’s all “lay down artillery until defenders get the f’ out, walk in.

Russia continued making slow, grinding progress on Wednesday, taking five settlements, repulsed on six other approaches, and pushing into some of the larger towns. Ukrainian resistance is stiff. 

🇷🇺 have taken control of Zarichne and has continued to advance in Yampil’.

As noted this morning, Russia went from attacking in too many axes during the war’s first season, to …. attacking in too many axes in this second phase.

Today was day 60 of this war. Two full months. Feels like a lifetime out here, in safety. Imagine what it must be like in Ukraine. (Even my own experience in El Salvador’s civil war was nowhere near the intensity of this all-out conventional war.)

Russian forces have no hope of taking Azovstal metal factory in Mariupol, literally designed to withstand a nuclear attack.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy felt like Groundhog Day, answering the same questions “what do you need?” from world leaders time and time again. Writing about this war feels the same way. 

The first five weeks of the war, we didn’t just talk about Russia’s logistical struggles, but of Ukraine’s abilities to capitulate on those struggles for maximum chaos and destruction.

Yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was complaining about the “Groundhog Day” of having to repeat time and time again his nation’s critical defensive needs. What a difference a day makes, with hundreds of millions of dollars of aid streaming in daily.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: 

“I like new questions,” he said. “It’s not interesting to answer the questions you already heard.” He is frustrated, for instance, by repeated requests for his wish list of weapons systems. “When some leaders ask me what weapons I need, I need a moment to calm myself, because I already told them the week before. It’s Groundhog Day. I feel like Bill Murray.

The Economist: 

This unexpected weakness of Russia in military matters arises from four concurring causes, of which three are inherent in her system, and, if not absolutely incurable, are at best little likely to be cured …

The Russian armies are often armies on paper only.

On March 7, the United States announced that it would send 400 troops to Lithuania to compliment 600 already there. On April 7, we saw American artillery passing through Poland.

A train of military equipment straining towards the border with Ukraine was seen at the railway station Gniezno (Poland) The following equipment can be seen on the platforms: ▪️American tracked command and staff machine M577 ▪️American self-propelled artillery 155mm pic.

(I’m basing this report on early information. The fog of war is thick. So approach everything with appropriate hesitation and skepticism.)

The day’s big war news is … it’s big. Ukraine has sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the guided missile cruiser Moskva—the very ship Ukrainians told to go fuck themselves on the first day of the war.

Today was rough, with too many gruesome pictures of dead civilians in liberated towns. The United States warned that Russia had kill-lists of people they wanted eradicated once they took control, and apparently it included even small town mayors. In one little settlement, the mayor was murdered along with her son and husband—the latter tossed into a sewer to bloat and decompose.

NASA FIRMS satellite imagery is designed to track forest fires. Turns out, it’s also great at letting us know what’s happening on a battlefield. 

I added the bigger, highlighted city names for better readability. Other than one fire northwest of Kyiv, that whole front is quiet. We know that Ukrainian troops are mopping up after Russia’s withdrawal.

With Russians conceding their humiliating loss at the Battle for Kyiv, there is a massive artillery barrage to cover for … something. A retreat? A reconfiguration? We don’t know. Lots of fog of war right now, and we can’t trust anything Russia claims. Look at NASA FIRMS satellite imagery of the region: 

NASA FIRMS satellite image 3/29/2022

Remember, not every red dot here is combat-related fire.

Ukraine is pushing out from Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv and Sumy in the northeast, and Mykolaiv toward Kherson in the south. Here we are in the northeast: 

📽️Ukrainian troops assaulting Russian positions in #Sumy region #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/g6WOQjpwgR— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) March 26, 2022

This looks like the assault into Trostyanets, south of Sumy.

Wow, what a day! Let’s treat this as a recap. 

Thanks to Russia, cats and dogs are working together with the French, to do something that should’ve been done weeks ago.

🚨 Pres Macron just announced that 🇫🇷, together with 🇹🇷 and 🇬🇷, is planning an “exceptional humanitarian operation” to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol.

NBC’s Richard Engel got an unclassified look at the status map at a Ukrainian headquarters. Click the link for the full video, but here’s a screenshot of the map itself: 

For all the talk about Ukraine encircling the Russian spearhead at Bucha, northwest of the city, it’s actually the northeastern side of Kyiv where counter-attacks are having the most success.

Last update, we looked at Ukrainian moves in northwest Kyiv. I was going to focus next on the Kherson area, but still too much fog of war to get an accurate read. So instead, let’s head over to the eastern front, where Russia has had some success. 

One of four major axes of attack (the others being Kyiv/north, Kharkiv/Sumy/northeast, and Kherson/south), the Donbas front has been continuously at war for eight years.

Some odds and ends observations for this Sunday afternoon/evening. 

* Twitter and Telegram had an above average number of pictures and videos of destroyed Russian equipment and more dead Russians than I’ve seen all war. Ukraine seems emboldened, and in particular, it appears to be pressing its advantages in northwest Kyiv and in the Mykolaiv region—the best evidence yet of continued counter-offensives by the defenders.

This map shows us the gains by each side in the last seven days. Red are Russian gains, blue are Ukrainian gains. 

If you’re wondering, yeah, that’s pretty much nothing. Russia consolidated some territory northwest of Kyiv, while Ukraine pushed Russia out of western Kyiv suburbs. There were offensives reported there last few days, and looks like they did good work—important because it pushes Russia outside of artillery range of central Kyiv.

It’s hard to read through Twitter or the Daily Kos comments and not see people shocked by Russia’s brutality in Ukraine, demanding that we “do more.” This is a common sentiment, from very smart people: 

This makes me very sad. Like I am not doing enough. I have girls this age. We (the world) must do more to help Ukraine. I understand all the political and escalation lines. I don’t care. We can and must do more. pic.twitter.

Before the invasion, I posted a 7-day weather outlook for Ukraine and wrote, “Those are above-freezing temperatures, meaning that grounds are already thawing out, creating a soft mushy mess that would bog down any Russian incursion deep into Ukraine.” It wasn’t a particularly novel observation.

This series documents stories from the Herman Cain Awards subreddit. tracking the COVID mis- and disinformation on Facebook that is leading to so many deaths. Today’s cautionary tale is Herman Cain, who died for Donald Trump. Who is this guy that has this award named after him? 

Herman Cain was one of a handful of prominent Black conservatives riding that juicy grift for years.

Facebook is a menace. COVID-19 is a menace. Conservatism is a cesspool. Together, those three ingredients have created a toxic stew of malevolent death and devastation. We can talk about all those things in the abstract, look at the numbers and statistics, and catch the occasional whiff of seditionist right-wing rhetoric.

Facebook is a menace. COVID-19 is a menace. Conservatism is a cesspool. Together, those three ingredients have created a toxic stew of malevolent death and devastation. We can talk about all those things in the abstract, look at the numbers and statistics, and catch the occasional whiff of seditionist right-wing rhetoric.

Facebook is a menace. COVID-19 is a menace. Conservatism is a cesspool. Together, those three ingredients have created a toxic stew of malevolent death and devastation. We can talk about all those things in the abstract, look at the numbers and statistics, and catch the occasional whiff of seditionist right-wing rhetoric.

Facebook is a menace. COVID-19 is a menace. Conservatism is a cesspool. Together, those three ingredients have created a toxic stew of malevolent death and devastation. We can talk about all those things in the abstract, look at the numbers and statistics, and catch the occasional whiff of seditionist right-wing rhetoric.

Facebook is a menace. COVID-19 is a menace. Conservatism is a cesspool. Together, those three ingredients have created a toxic stew of malevolent death and devastation. We can talk about all those things in the abstract, look at the numbers and statistics, and catch the occasional whiff of seditionist right-wing rhetoric.

Facebook is a menace. COVID-19 is a menace. Conservatism is a cesspool. Together, those three ingredients have created a toxic stew of malevolent death and devastation. We can talk about all those things in the abstract, look at the numbers and statistics, and catch the occasional whiff of seditionist right-wing rhetoric.

This tweet is spot on:

The 4 stages of COVID denial: 1. It’s a hoax. 2. Don’t be a sheep. 3. Prayers needed. 4. Visit our GoFundMe.— SP384 (@SpacePirates384) August 29, 2021

And what’s amazing is just how spot-on it is. Several subreddits over at Reddit, like the Herman Cain Award, have sprung forth to document these stories, repeated time and time again, every single day.

All Republicans are awful. They are greedy, selfish, death-worshipping assholes. Let’s just stipulate that because it’s objectively true—it’s no accident that while they were happy to toss aside their supposed fealty to “family values” and “national security” during the Trump years, the one thing they got accomplished was tax cuts for the über-wealthy. Their priorities have always been clear.