Popasna fell on May 7. Russian forces successfully pushed north and captured Lysychansk on July 3, as Ukrainian troops exhausted from the defense of Severodonetsk across the river failed to hold the lines next door. Since then, not much has happened.
Current front lines in northeast Donbas
After that grinding push north, Russia looked west toward Bakhmut and Siversk, yet two months later, the front lines have barely budged.
A best-case scenario for Ukraine’s Kherson counteroffensive:
NASA FIRMS data tells us what Ukraine is up to in Kherson Oblast. Take Nova Kakhovka, and Kherson city is fully isolated, while Crimea’s water is shut off. It’s THE play. pic.twitter.com/gAIbzaqoML— Markos Moulitsas (@markos) August 30, 2022
Taking Kherson city would likely be a bloody affair, decimating large parts of the city.
It’s always challenging to sift through the fog of war to ascertain what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine, especially so when it’s breaking news like the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and extra so when it’s in a theater—Kherson in southern Ukraine—in which Ukraine has enforced a tight lid on information.
As such, what is discussed below may be distorted or even flat out wrong.
In the wake of last Tuesday’s stunning NY-19 special election results, in which Democrats held a swingy seat Republicans need for a majority, I wrote that the red wave had ebbed. Republicans seem to understand that too, as something akin to panic has descended upon their ranks.
Starting in July, we started hearing about Russia working hard to sign up new volunteers, offering hefty signing bonuses appealing to a Russian culture of deep indebtedness. Big monthly paychecks were designed to draw in desperate recruits from Russia’s most impoverished, neglected regions.
In a normal army, in a normal war, those recruits would spend several months training, then be integrated as replacements in existing units.
The Washington Post has an in-depth, excellent story on the Battle of Kyiv, as told from the perspectives of the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his top advisors, the military brass, down to men in the trenches. The detail is spectacular, giving us new insight into the battle we were tracking 2-3 times a day for 36 days.
Conventional wisdom says the party that holds the White House is fated to suffer midterm losses. It’s tough to come out ahead when the election is framed as a referendum on the sitting president, in a political system that guarantees no president can get his agenda through Congress unscathed.
If a (Ukrainian counterattack) storm is in the cards sometime in the next month, this is the calm before it. If Ukraine still doesn’t have the ability to engage in a major combined arms operation, then it’s just … the calm. Here, thanks to Def Mon’s new interactive map, are Russia’s operations yesterday in the Donbas, the only place anyone tried to move at all.
You expect rank incompetence from basic Russian troops, but Wagner mercenaries have proven some of the most valuable forces on the Russian side. They were instrumental in the conquest of along every single major Russian victory in the last several months—Popasna, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and their (modest) advances around Bakhmut.
Russia continues to flood forces into the Kherson area in response to Ukraine’s repeated declarations that it is just this close from launching its long-expected counter-offensive to retake its land. The whole situation continues to have the feel of a trap as Ukraine systematically eliminates ammunition depots and supply routes into the region.
Another big BOOM on Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region, now. The detonation of ammunition is reported #Kherson #Ukraine pic.
On vacation still, but checking in to provide an update on the on-the-ground tactical situation in Ukraine. I’ll start at Izyum, and work my way around the front in clockwise direction.
Izyum direction: No one is officially calling it yet, but it’s increasingly clear that Ukraine has retaken Dovhen’ke as Russia’s Izyum holdings recede.
It’s always interesting peering into the Tankie alternate reality, so let’s check in this Saturday morning. For those of you who don’t know, the Tankies oppose American imperialism (so far so good), but think only America can be imperialist. It looks like this:
If you’re on the side of the US empire on any issue you are on the wrong side.
According to Ukrainian General Staff, Ukraine has launched a new offensive in Kharkiv area in northern Ukraine, “The defense forces of Ukraine advanced into the depths of the enemyʼs defenses and gained a foothold.” No details were offered, but will definitely bear watching. Russia is already emptying out the Izyum area to reinforce the Kherson front.
We looked at China’s reaction yesterday when Nancy Pelosi confirmed she would be visiting Taiwan as part of an Asian swing. And while the more radical threats to shoot down her plane didn’t pan out, China is in the midst of a Republican-like geopolitical temper tantrum. Indeed, we may be seeing the largest Streisand Effect in global history.
Ukraine’s map is full of little towns that led unremarkable, mostly agricultural lives until war was foisted on them. I previously wrote about Dovhen’ke, which stymied Russian forces pushing down from Izyum for two months before finally surrendering its remaining rubble to Russia on June 4.
President Joe Biden is unpopular. Really unpopular. Civiqs has him at 31-57 nationally. And in the states? Oof. He’s even underwater in California. And Massachusetts. Vermont is barely hanging on.
Civiqs Results
In a normal midterm cycle, this would be the end of the president’s party, especially given the razor-thin Democratic majorities in both chambers (including that 50-50 Senate).
After a flurry of activity the last few days, things have settled down, if by “settled down” we mean “back to HIMARS systematically degrading Russia’s ability to wage its war.” Last night, the Russian-occupied cities of Ilovaisk, Nova Kakhovka, Brylivka, and Kherson all enjoyed dramatic fireworks displays at the expense of a great deal of Russian ammunition.
Another bonus update, as holy crap things are happening on the ground. Just in the last 24 hours, I wrote about weird stuff happening in Izyum and bridges around Kherson getting blasted, and Mark followed up with Russia’s suddenly precarious position in that region. Things haven’t let up today.
Lots happening today, so bonus update!
On Monday I briefly addressed rumors out of pro-Ukraine Telegram that Russian forces had abandoned two key villages near Izyum, the site of a pontoon bridge and a key supply route for forces pushing toward the twin fortress cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Unfortunately it’s not likely true.
Oh brother …
Western officials believe that Russia will likely begin another major offensive in Ukraine early next year in an effort to cut off Ukraine from the sea, FP’s @JackDetsch and @RobbieGramer report. https://t.
The last time territory publicly changed hands in Ukraine was July 9, and before that, July 6. Both times, they were tiny settlements in the Donbas, as Russia continues its bloody crawl toward Sivers’k—a town Russia should’ve taken a long time ago.
Ukraine wants to push Russia out from around Kharkiv in the north in order to spare the city incessant rocket and artillery attacks. Putting the Russian city of Belgorod, a military logistical hub, within artillery range would be a bonus.
Ukraine wants to stop Russian advances in the Donbas, because every inch of territory lost is an inch that will later have to be retaken, with a heavy cost in blood.
Claimed Ukrainian tank kills per day:
June 27: 20
June 26: 21
June 24: 4
June 23: 3
June 22: 8
June 21: 0
June 20: 19
June 19: 9
June 18: 3
If you keep going back, you’ll see that zero to nine is about the usual range, with a few bigger days here and there, like June 20. I don’t recall ever seeing two 20+ tank days in a row.
Now, it’s reasonable to suspect these numbers.
Russia managed to move 20 kilometers from Popasna to the southern outskirts of Lysychansk in six weeks. It managed that task by massing its artillery ahead of its lines of advance, then sending its best infantry (VDV airborne remnants and Wagner mercenaries) back and forth between Severodonetsk and the Popasna advance once artillery had reduced the next objective to rubble.
Early days of the war, the most videos showed anti-tank missiles like NLAWS, Stugna-P, and Javelins taking out Russian armor and vehicles. Then there was the “vehicles stuck in mud” phase. Eventually, that gave way to supply convoy ambushes. Then artillery strikes, and more artillery strikes. A handful of “commercial drone drops grenade” videos sneak through, but mostly artillery. Lots of artillery strikes. Until … now.
It doesn’t matter what state you live in: Our federal protections to the right abortion care, and the underpinning right to privacy that ensures access to contraception, marriage equality, and other civil rights—and even interracial marriage—is now gone.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy already said he’ll be pushing for a national abortion ban. (Well, he says 15-week ban today, but we know they all lie, and what their true intentions are.
Military historians will someday debate the wisdom of defending Severodonetsk. I debated the pros and cons with myself. Regardless of that final judgement, the battle is over. Ukraine withdrew the last of its forces across the river overnight, ceding yet another worthless pile of rubble to the Russian invaders. Hopefully, the cost to defend it was worth it.
I’ve never understood Ukraine’s defense of Severodonetsk. I posted this image on May 26…
… and wrote:
I circled Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in the map above as a reminder, that even if Russia takes Severodonetsk (probable) and Lysychansk (less probable), any such advance will crash at the gates of [the] heavily fortified cities [of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk], with clear supply lines and artillery support to their west.
I’m a sucker for these kinds of videos:
That moment when you get a short break from the frontlines and can go home on a surprise visit to your girlfriend. 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/L2voxNjVKf— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 15, 2022
A happy moment of a Ukrainian soldier meeting his family between rotations. In 2-3 days he will go back to the frontline. pic.twitter.
I’m a sucker for these kinds of videos:
That moment when you get a short break from the frontlines and can go home on a surprise visit to your girlfriend. 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/L2voxNjVKf— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 15, 2022
A happy moment of a Ukrainian soldier meeting his family between rotations. In 2-3 days he will go back to the frontline. pic.twitter.