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I’ve been on a rampage against claims that Ukraine suffers from a massive artillery deficit (here, here, and here). Ukraine has a vested interest in pleading poverty, building urgency among the international community for more aid. But the evidence suggests Ukraine is holding its own. 

Mark made this map a few days ago, showing NASA FIRMS fire data from around the Severodonetsk area. Red dots are artillery fires in Russian territory, blue ones in Ukrainian territory.

The United States and several of its Western allies announced a new round of military (and humanitarian) aid for Ukraine. 

United States, $1 billion:

18 155mm Howitzers;
36,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition;
18 Tactical Vehicles to tow 155mm Howitzers;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems;
Four Tactical Vehicles to recover equipment;
Spare parts and other equipment.

I’ve been writing about perspective on how hard it is to ship, to use, to maintain, and to supply complex Western weapons systems. Those are all real challenges, yet there is another, perhaps bigger one: the amount of equipment Ukraine is demanding simply don’t exist.

The fog of war is thick, and propaganda muddies it further. The Ukrainian government isn’t immune. For example, the Ukrainian government is saying this: 

Ukraine has now almost completely run out of ammunition for the Soviet-era weapons systems that were the mainstay of its arsenal, and the Eastern European countries that maintained the same systems have run out of surplus supplies to donate, Danylyuk said.

Remember the tankies? Quick recap: Tankies believe that all the world’s evils are the product of imperialism and the only country capable of imperialism is the United States. They count among their number such luminaries as Glenn Greenwald and Noam Chomsky.

As Russia and Ukraine remain in a bloody fight over Severodonetsk, a town with a pre-war population of around 100,000 and roughly zero strategic value, another far more important battle is being waged 80 kilometers (50 miles) directly to the west at Dovhen’ke, pre-war population 850.

I both love and hate Ukrainian aid announcements from the Pentagon. Here’s the latest: 

High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and ammunition;
Five counter-artillery radars;
Two air surveillance radars;
1,000 Javelins and 50 Command Launch Units;
6,000 anti-armor weapons;
15,000 155mm artillery rounds;
Four Mi-17 helicopters;
15 tactical vehicles;
Spare parts and equipment.

I love them because hey, Ukraine is getting more of what they need to win this war.

My war coverage is anchored by one simple tenet: don’t expect Russia to do something it has never proven able to accomplish. Some day, Russia might get its shit together, but in three months of war, betting against Russia has always paid off. 

We may soon be able to add the Popasna salient to that list of Russian failures.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the warlord chieftain of Chechnya and a staunch Vladimir Putin ally, has claimed total and complete Russian control of Severodonetsk. He claimed full control of Mariupol about two dozen times (no exaggeration) before Russia actually, finally, expelled all Ukrainian defenders. In other words, he’s full of shit. 

So the fight continues as Ukraine reinforces the city, while observers scratch their heads in confusion.

Yesterday I wondered why Ukraine was so hell-bent on defending Severodonetsk,  isolated on a deep salient surrounded on three sides and no natural barriers, when those forces could simply cross the river and hold out in a much more defensible Lysychansk. Retired Australian general Mick Ryan pondered the same today, noting that “the tactical and political necessity to hold out in Severodonetsk is questionable.

The United States’s decision on whether to send MLRS/HIMARS rocket artillery to Ukraine has been painfully long and torturous, but they’re reportedly on the verge of making it happen. According to CNN’s sources, the problem is fear “Ukraine could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia … The MLRS and its lighter-weight version, the HIMARS, can launch as far as 300km, or 186 miles.

After two days of futility, Russia finally picked up some new ground today.

Updates: 🇷🇺 advanced further South of Popasna and captured Myronivs’kyi. There is fighting ongoing in Lyman after 🇷🇺 forces entered the city’s outskirts. pic.twitter.com/AiS5Ys7cqT— Ukraine War Map (@War_Mapper) May 24, 2022

Lyman’s fate is sealed, on the wrong side of the Donets. Hopefully civilians have fully evacuated.

Yesterday, we discussed the hyperventilation over Russia’s Popasna advance, the one place on the entire Texas-sized country of Ukraine in which they’ve had some recent success. Today? “There have been no notable changes to control since the last update.

Yesterday, we discussed the hyperventilation over Russia’s Popasna advance, the one place on the entire Texas-sized country of Ukraine in which they’ve had some recent success. Today? “There have been no notable changes to control since the last update.

As usual, War Mapper has the best visualizations of daily battlefield changes: 

Updates: 🇷🇺 captured Novoselivka, Northwest of Lyman. 🇷🇺 continued its advances in the vicinity of Popasna, taking control of the villages of Viktorivka and Vyskryva. pic.twitter.

As usual, War Mapper has the best visualizations of daily battlefield changes: 

Updates: 🇷🇺 captured Novoselivka, Northwest of Lyman. 🇷🇺 continued its advances in the vicinity of Popasna, taking control of the villages of Viktorivka and Vyskryva. pic.twitter.

No no no no no.

Another weapon high on Ukraine’s shopping list are Multiple Rocket Launch Systems (MLRS) such as the M270 made by Lockheed Martin which can strike a target 70 or more kilometers away, a three-fold increase over many of their current howitzer rounds […]

The two U.S.

Hey, look at that, the Pentagon finally admits that a Russian BTG is not really a BTG.

NEW: Russia did push some units into the Donbas fight that weren’t at 100 percent after taking losses in the failed assault on Kyiv: senior U.S. defense official “Some BTGs were so depleted that they simply disbanded them and combined them into others,” the official said.

Today, Ukraine liberated another town around Kharkiv, this one just to its north. But the main show is down in the Popasna-Severonetsk-Lyman area, where Russia continues to make costly incremental gains. 

🇷🇺 is attacking in multiple directions out from Popasna and has reportedly captured Vrubivka and Druzhba pic.twitter.

There has been no further updates on the big news of the day—reports by Russian sources that Ukraine had crossed to the east of the Donets River, directly threatening Russian supply lines at Vovchansk. Ukraine doesn’t announce liberated towns until days after the fact. Russia doesn’t know what half its troops are doing at any given time, why give them a head’s up? It also prevents the embarrassment of losing territory after announcing a liberation.

Whether by battlefield success or strategic Ukrainian retreat, Russia is seeing some success in the Lyman-Severodonetsk axis. 

Updates: To the North of Lyman, 🇷🇺 have captured Shandryholove, Derylove, and Stavky. Reports that 🇷🇺 may have also taken control of Drobysheve. pic.twitter.

For all the sturm und drang of today’s fighting, changes on the ground were scant. Ukraine officially picked up a small town here, Russia did the same over there. While much of the front line was on fire (Ukraine claimed 14 separate attacks), the situation on the ground remained essentially unchanged. @War_Mapper’s updates on Twitter are always great, if you want to see today’s changes.

For all the sturm und drang of today’s fighting, changes on the ground were scant. Ukraine officially picked up a small town here, Russia did the same over there. While much of the front line was on fire (Ukraine claimed 14 separate attacks), the situation on the ground remained essentially unchanged. @War_Mapper’s updates on Twitter are always great, if you want to see today’s changes.

With unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has pushed Russia mostly out of its territory north of Kharkiv, we have been speculating where Ukraine would counter next—toward the railhead northeast of Kharkiv in Vovchansk, or the the logistical hub at Kupiansk, where three major rail lines connect.

It’s said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result. If that’s the case … Russia qualifies. 

We saw it in the early days of the war in Hostomel airport northwest of Kyiv. Russia made an unsupported airborne landing on the base. Got wiped out. Tried it again. Same result.

This past Monday, a local Telegram account gave us the first inkling something was happening near Kharkiv, in Ukraine’s northeast. The account claimed that Ukraine had pushed Russians out of Staryi Saltiv, well east of the last known Ukrainian positions around Kharkiv (as well as complained that withdrawing Russians had run over his aviary). It’s as if Ukraine had leap-frogged a whole string of villages en route to the key city on the Donets.

Mark Sumner wrote earlier today about the incredible shrinking Russian army. It’s an important read, as it explains why Russia is stuck on all fronts in Ukraine despite having a seemingly overwhelming numerical and equipment advantage. The bottom line, as it turns out, is that Russia doesn’t have a numerical and equipment advantage. 

Russia didn’t gain any ground today, anywhere. They are stuck stuck.

I wrote an entire update earlier today on the possibility that Ukraine had taken a key city near Kharkiv, in Ukraine’s northeast. Looks (indirectly) confirmed. 

This appears to be confirmation from official US Defence sources that Ukrainian troops have retaken the strategic town of Staryi Saltiv. That town is 40km NE of the centre of Kharkiv (a circle showing 40km is mapped below) and had been rumoured recaptured by Ukraine today. https://t.co/t6ntAn726m pic.twitter.

For the second straight day, Russia lost more ground than it gained. Ukraine is pushing Russian forces around Kharkiv toward the international border. Mark Sumner made this map for his last update—blue cities taken the last couple of days, yellow ones under current Ukrainian assault. 

Mark searched the names of all the villages NE of Kharkiv on Google and social media to get a handle on that Kharkiv front. All the villages.

Today’s April 29 report really amounts to “zip.” A small village northeast of Kharkiv liberated by Ukraine was the only territory to change hands. On the main Donbas front, Ukraine General Staff reported repelling 14 attacks, none gained purchase. And yet again, we see Russia incapable of organizing a single, massive, coordinated push to crack Ukrainian defensive lines.