UPDATE: Tuesday, Jan 10, 2023 · 12:37:11 AM +00:00
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kos
Video from inside Soledar earlier today. The caption reads “Soledar Hang in there!” pic.twitter.com/Zz1gSLEao9— LanguageLearner (@LanguageIearner) January 9, 2023
There are sober analysts who are saying that Russian advances have been exaggerated, and not to believe either side at the moment.
UPDATE: Sunday, Jan 8, 2023 · 11:30:29 PM +00:00 · kos
Russia might be on the verge of taking Soledar…
Russian Forces are continuing to Advance on the City of Soledar in Eastern Ukraine with them now Controlling over 80% of the City; the most Heavy Fighting is near the Salt Mine Museum which has traded hands multiple times in the last couple of weeks. pic.twitter.
UPDATE: Monday, Jan 2, 2023 · 5:54:08 PM +00:00
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Barbara Morrill
In case you missed it, a related post from Mark Sumner:
Ukraine update: 10 moments from a war that already contains a million unforgettable moments
Over 10 months, the Russo-Ukraine War has killed over 200,000 on both sides and leveled entire cities to the ground, with consequences reaching far beyond Ukraine’s border.
It’s been a while since we checked in with the tankies, which is a shame, because it’s always so much fun when we do. You can find previous editions here, here, and here.
For the uninitiated, a “tankie” is someone who believes that imperialism is bad, and only the United States can be imperialist. Furthermore, all of the world’s problems can be blamed on said American imperialism.
Dmitri over at War Translated posted the translation of a long Telegram post by Russian volunteer Murz, who helps support the Luhansk militia fundraising for supplies. Along with war criminal Igor Girkin, he is one of the fiercest internal critics of the Russian war effort, and this latest 5,000-word missive does not disappoint. Let’s dig in.
Let’s start with his take on Russian war propaganda.
I’ve had fun these last few days revisiting some of my early writing on the war. I’m actually surprised at how well it held up to the test of time. While that may sound self-congratulatory—and it obviously is—it’s also a huge relief.
Russian forces invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. For historical purposes, I thought it would be interesting to go back and revisit that first day. I had spent the entire night up, furiously consuming fragmented information coming through Twitter and Telegram sources. Things looked bleak that night. I slept little, but at first light it was already clear Russia wasn’t moving as quickly as it expected. I wrote up the following state of play at 3 PM PT.
UPDATE: Monday, Dec 26, 2022 · 12:37:36 AM +00:00
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kos
Rumors of Ukraine entering Kreminna are for sure wrong. Russia has been evacuating its civilians from the town (like they did from Svatove over the last few days), and that seems to have been interpreted by some as “all Russians are retreating.” The reports of looting are real, as well. And Ukraine is pushing ever closer.
Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Six days prior, I wrote a preview of the coming war. Now, at the end of 2022, it’s as good a time as any to see how well it has held up. I’m reading it fresh right now as I write, and I will make bracketed editorial notes in italics as I react to my predictions. Theoretically this should be fun, so let’s have at it!
Putin has backed himself into a lose-lose corner.
UPDATE: Thursday, Dec 22, 2022 · 1:06:49 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
UPDATE: Thursday, Dec 22, 2022 · 1:04:05 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
“May God bless Ukraine. My God bless the United States of America. Merry Christmas, and a happy victorious New Year.”
UPDATE: Thursday, Dec 22, 2022 · 1:02:55 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
“When I was in Bakhmut yesterday, our heroes gave me their battle flag.
In case you missed it the last few weeks:
A high-level overview of the current active front. I wrote that nearly a month ago, but nothing has changed since.
A look at Ukraine’s future offensive options. This piece is two weeks old, and for sure nothing has changed. Ukraine won’t launch any winter offensive until the ground is good and frozen. General Mud doesn’t care if it’s Russia or Ukraine on the march.
Yesterday, Mark Sumner noted that over a week of panic over Bakhmut seemed to have culminated, with Ukraine back in control of many of its recently lost positions (including the hilariously mistranslated “wine factory” and the ever-present trash dump.) It is a seemingly dramatic turnaround from last week, when both Russian and Ukrainian telegram were reporting the collapse of entire Ukrainian defensive lines.
I drive a Tesla. I live in the San Francisco Bay Area. Sometimes it feels like a third of people around me drive Teslas. I see lots of Teslas in New York City, Austin, and Seattle. I don’t see many of them in Alabama, or the Florida Panhandle or mid-Pennsylvania or Idaho, or anywhere else that’s mostly conservative.
Sometime around Dec. 9 or 10, Russian forces mounted a major attack on the town of Velyka Novosilka in southern Ukraine. The Russian milblogger “Novorossiya Z.O.V.”, with 300,000 followers, reported the assault:
The decision to attack in the Velyka Novosilka area looks potentially dangerous for the right flank of the Ukrainian grouping in the Donbass.
UPDATE: Sunday, Dec 11, 2022 · 10:37:51 PM +00:00 · kos
If you are regular readers of our Ukraine coverage, you should know better than to hyperventilate over Bakhmut. While there’s been talk about some Russian gains around the town, Def Mon puts it all in perspective in this thread:
Bakhmut These images shows the RU progress in the Bakhmut area for the last 3 months. Can we all calm down now? 2022-08-31 vs 2022-12-11 pic.twitter.
Oh my…
NY Times mobile headline, “Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia escalate the war”
There’s … there’s so much wrong with this headline.
UPDATE: Tuesday, Dec 6, 2022 · 6:24:45 AM +00:00
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kos
Third Russian airbase hit in two days. It looks like Ukraine has gotten itself some ability to strike back at Russia, and it’s kinda hilarious.
🇷🇺 #Russia’s airport/base in #Kursk ~100km from 🇺🇦 #Ukraine border ist burning pic.twitter.
UPDATE: Monday, Dec 5, 2022 · 12:25:52 AM +00:00
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kos
Has Ukraine established a bridgehead over Dnipro, as the ISW and media are telling right now? The short answer is technically yes, but in practice no. Ukrainian forces indeed made a visit there, but it was a small special operations detachment. 1/4 pic.twitter.com/8YWdJ7b0AT— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) December 4, 2022
Yeah, not a liberation.
UPDATE: Monday, Nov 28, 2022 · 11:45:10 PM +00:00
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kos
Russian VDV unit got mauled somewhere in Kherson oblast:
We are often asked how we tally up thousands of downed enemy vehicles. We liberate our territory, and then we count. Just like that. pic.twitter.com/Jcjyu6zWNZ— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 28, 2022
Don’t worry, the widows were well compensated.
As I noted yesterday, what was Russia’s five axes of attack at the start of the war has been gradually whittled down to a single front in The Donbas. Still, it’s a long front line, across two different oblasts (which collective make up the Donbas), with several directions of action. So let’s take a look at what should be the front lines for the foreseeable future (unless Ukraine surprises everyone with a new push into southern Kherson oblast or even Crimea).
Happy Thanksgiving, all! Today is also the nine-month anniversary of Russia’s illegal invasion. Mostly going to do some bullet-point updates today. I’m cranking this out as quickly as I can, and am skipping self-editing. Everyone else is out today. So please forgive the raw prose and whatever grammar, spelling, and clarity mistakes might exist.
Awkward.
Nobody wants to stand next to stinky 🇷🇺💩 pic.twitter.
There’s no way to consider Russia anything but a terrorist nation. More than its unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine, its indiscriminate targeting of civilians is textbook terrorism. Russia doesn’t even hide it—Russia is demanding negotiations to freeze the conflict in exchange for stopping its terror campaign against civilian targets.
The European Union has finally responded.
Way back in March, we were celebrating mud as a savior in Ukraine’s defense from Russia’s military onslaught. The headline, in fact, was “Let’s talk about mud, the greatest friend Ukraine ever had.
If this war was a long-running television series, we’d be in the off season, with writers writing new scripts, actors resting up, and the props department designing new sets, gear, and costumes. Season 1 was the Battle of Kyiv. Season 2 was the grinding battle for the Donbas, ending with Russia’s capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Season 3 was Russian culmination at Izyum, and the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast. Season 4 was the liberation of Kherson.
This has been a logistics war, and when I say that, I mean it’s been an artillery war.
Logistics is about moving troops, food, water, fuel, lubricants, ammunition, weapons, spare parts, and everything else needed to fight a war to the front lines. How do you fight a logistics war? By stopping those supplies from moving. How do you stop those supplies from moving? You disrupt supply lines—by destroying supply depots, trucks, rail lines, and bridges.
Let’s talk about Bakhmut.
“You are doomed, aggressor, As the Witch presaged you” Meet a junior sergeant callsign “Witch” from the 241 Kyiv TDF Brigade. During the defense of Bakhmut, the platoon under her leadership repulsed six enemy infantry attacks in just one night. pic.twitter.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 16, 2022 · 1:08:46 AM +00:00
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kos
And this is a bit of a walk-back—missile “most likely” produced in Russia, and still no info on who fired it.
Polish President Duda said in a Tuesday address that Poland does not know yet who fired the missile that caused an explosion in Przewodow, also noting that the missile was “most likely produced in Russia.
In yesterday’s update, a commenter asked how winter would affect the war. Great topic! Let’s do it.
Let’s start with logistics. It’s been well-established that Russia is incapable of functioning efficiently 25 kilometers past its nearest railhead. Theirs is an army built and designed for domestic defense, with an extensive rail network to move troops and supplies across vast distances.
UPDATE: Monday, Nov 14, 2022 · 1:49:02 AM +00:00
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kos
This is so lovely: “A welcome to the Republican visitors to DKos here for the Ukraine coverage.”
If you’re reading Daily Kos, you are inherently smart. Objectively so. Ask anyone in the room around you—you’re the person they go to if they have questions about politics, or about COVID, or … about Ukraine.
There were those of us insisting the dominant media narrative of a “red wave” was wrong. Kerry Eleveld, Simon Rosenberg, Tom Bonier, and I kept looking at the data and wondering where this fervent belief on the massive Republican wave came from. History, for sure. But it was clear as day that this wasn’t a typical midterm.