Russia continues to shift already-battered forces toward Eastern Ukraine and has made new moves around Kherson, but there’s still no clear picture of what Russia’s actual next plans might be.
The atrocities committed by Russian troops in Bucha have resulted in world fury. They may not, however, be an outlier.
As both Russia and Ukraine race to redeploy troops toward eastern and southern Ukraine, where a battered Russia still hopes to gain new territory that it can then proclaim to have been part of Russia all along, much of what happens next is contingent on the Russian military being able to either recommit those forces or muster suitable replacements.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Bucha and Irpin today; Russia retreated from both cities in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks but left behind evidence of horrific war crimes perpetrated during their scant few weeks of occupation. The bodies of civilians are still being collected, some of them with their hands bound behind their backs.
As Russian troops retreat from their positions around Kyiv—a retreat forced by increasingly successful Ukrainian counterattacks that put a significant chunk of Russia’s committed forces in danger of encirclement–the world is in shock tonight as images of Russian war crimes continue to flow in from towns now liberated from Russian control.
Russian artillery bombardments reportedly intensified significantly yesterday in the areas around Kyiv and Chernihiv that Russia announced it would be moving its forces out of, but that’s not necessarily a sign that Russia was lying about the withdrawals: Using artillery bombardments to provide cover for retreating troops is a standard tactical move, and Russia desperately needed to move some of its battered frontline battalions out from positions that Ukrainian counterattackers were th
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with President Joe Biden again today as Biden confirmed another $500 million in aid would be headed for the country, while peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue to go nowhere.
There was a time, not long ago, when I would have argued that much of what ails our politics could be made better by forcing candidates into a lot more debates.
Today’s most significant news is the announcement from Russia that they intend to pull back from some areas near Kyiv, allegedly as a magnanimous gesture. We can say with near certainty that Putin’s generals aren’t doing it out of goodwill.
Ukrainian defenders continued to make incremental gains over the weekend, using small-unit tactics to great effect against overextended Russian troops. Larger-scale operations appear to be successfully forcing Russian retreats in several key locations, including a retaking of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, again pushing Russian artillery positions away from the city.
In a ruling ordering John Eastman, who is alleged to have helped architect the scheme that would have seen Donald Trump’s vice president throw out the certified electors from a handful of Biden-won states so as to overturn the November 2020 presidential elections, to turn over evidence to the House select committee investigating the coup, a federal judge determined that Donald Trump himself likely sought to criminally obstruct Congress on that day.
There has been little new news on the ground in Ukraine—that is, of the confirmable sort. Video footage continues to suggest Ukraine continues to make some headway in rolling back the most tenuous of prior Russian advances, continuing to close in on Kherson and making substantial apparent progress northeast of Kyiv. Russian forces, meanwhile, continue to direct much of their fire towards non-military targets.
It was a day of shifting narratives as media outlets, their pundits, and even the mapmakers began to cautiously explore a notion that was scoffed at in the days immediately before Russia invaded Ukraine: Could Russia lose? Not just face economic and diplomatic isolation, but suffer an on-the-ground military loss?
It’s no longer unthinkable, though the situation in Ukraine is far too unstable to presume it to be the most likely end scenario.
Reports of successful Ukrainian offensives continued today, potentially putting Russian supply lines both northeast and northwest of Kyiv in significant jeopardy. Russian forces, meanwhile, continue to show little skill in responding to such threats—and indeed, even continue to focus what little air power they are willing to risk on bombing less-protected civilian areas to the south while avoiding military-to-military engagement.
The Ukrainian military is now acknowledging several new successes northwest of Kyiv, but whether those successes will result in the true encirclement of the Russian artillery positions north of the city remains unknowable. For the first time, however, such encirclement appears to be a genuine threat to Russian forces.
Today saw news of significant new Ukrainian counterattacks against Russian forces. Northwest of Kyiv, a Ukrainian offensive appears to have retaken Makariv, with additional Ukrainian attacks northward potentially endangering the long Russian supply lines that feed the Russian artillery lines threatening Kyiv. Ukraine also appears to be having some success dislodging Russian forces around Kherson in the south.
This doesn’t necessarily mean those successes will continue.
A new report from The New Yorker sheds some light on a new emerging dynamic, as sanctions stifle Russian life and Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin makes ever-more-Soviet speeches declaring war opponents to be enemies of his state—and with new laws to match. Russians, too, are fleeing their country.
Today saw major developments with the Ukrainian recapture of a town 75 miles into Russia-held territory, yet another indication that the stretched-thin nature of Russian advances may be rendering their territorial gains tenuous at best. Ukraine is also using more artillery attacks, which might suggest that weapons held in the western edge of the country to defend against a Russian incursion there are being redeployed to batter now-stagnant Russian positions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a virtual address to the United States Congress today, a key portion of which was video footage of the devastation caused by Russian attacks—and the many, many civilians now injured or dead. Zelenskyy again asked the United States to intervene directly in the war with the imposition of a military “no-fly” zone.
Today saw “limited to no progress” by Russian ground forces, according to a Pentagon spokesman, though Russia continues to shell civilian population centers. While Ukrainian cities in the south of the country remain surrounded or under occupation, the situation in Kyiv appears more stable, with no Russian advancement and open Ukrainian supply lines.
The news of the day brings no new major developments, only a continuation of past reports of modest Russian gains balanced against heavy Russian losses in ambushes and strikes carried out by Ukraine’s far more mobile, far more motivated, and far smaller defense forces.
What was predicted to be a swift Russian victory continues now as day-by-day slog as Russian forces continue to “shore up” or “regroup” for further incursions while Ukrainian defenders pick at supply lines and hold off Russian attempts to capture new ground.
The Russian “strategy” of shelling urban centers in an apparent attempt to level what they cannot militarily capture, however, continues. And the civilian death toll is rising rapidly.
In the days before Russia’s massive military assault on Ukraine, most analysts focused their attention on whether Ukraine’s much smaller military could offer any meaningful resistance to Russia’s near-certain victory. The Russian assault that actually took place, however, was not the one both Russia’s own leaders and outside military observers were suspecting.
After a noticeable lull yesterday, the last 24 hours have produced scores of videos of new Ukrainian captures of Russian military equipment, again showcasing the substantial successes Ukraine’s defenders are having in disrupting Russian supply convoys and even battle groups themselves.
Though Ukraine still faces long odds in being able to fend off a far larger Russian military, optimism still appears to reign among Ukrainian defenders. At the beginning of the war, both sides were preparing for a swift Russian takeover that would necessitate a Ukrainian defense centered around small units and guerrilla warfare; instead, Ukrainian forces continue to inflict shocking damage on spread-out, under-supplied, and under-protected Russian attackers.
The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine continues to grow, with 1.7 million refugees seeking safety across the border while civilians in Ukrainian cities under Russian artillery and missile attacks remain trapped. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to push forward with only modest gains, and Ukrainian defenders continue their success in reaching far into Russian supply convoys.
The last day saw few new military developments, but experts suspect that Russia is massing troops for renewed attacks around Kyiv. In Russia, at least 3,000 arrests were made on Sunday as anti-war protests in that country continue. Meanwhile, the Russian economy continues to reel as the nation faces a likely default on its sovereign bond payments.
We are now seeing large-scale devastation in civilian neighborhoods and population centers as Vladimir Putin’s forces, still struggling to maintain supply lines and now suffering significant damage both from command incompetence and Ukrainian defenses, have turned to artillery attacks and firing cluster bombs at civilian targets.
The last 24 hours have seen severe damage in Ukrainian cities as the Russian military, as widely expected, transitions to more indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas after the initial Russian push faced heavy Ukrainian resistance—and seemingly uniform incompetence on the part of Russian military leaders.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine is now in a new phase, and it is the one observers feared Putin would turn to after the humiliating performance of Russian forces in the first days of the war. After surrounding Ukrainian cities, Russia is shifting to artillery attacks on civilian areas, attacks on television broadcasting towers, and the apparent use of large-scale thermobaric weapons.