Heading into the midterms, everyone who follows American politics had the same question: Were the polls correct, or would they underestimate Republicans once again? The answer turned out to be neither. This time around, the polls undercounted a different kind of voter: Democrats.
According to the Silver Bulletin polling averages, Democrats were on track to win the U.S. House popular vote by nine points and narrowly flip a few Senate seats in states that Donald Trump had won by double digits.

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Democrats were jubilant last night, and for good reason: Few midterms in modern American history have produced such a thorough repudiation of a party as the Republicans experienced in this election. But celebrations have a pesky way of being followed by hangovers.

Last month, in Minneapolis, I visited the homegrown memorials that still stand in the spots where Alex Pretti and Renee Good were killed by federal agents. To me, they looked like living organisms fed by pain and hopefulness—handfuls of teddy bears with matted fur, crayon drawings of the victims, fresh daisies, tall red candles, cloth banners bearing expressions such as Only Love. Yesterday, on Election Day, these shrines were refreshed—this time by I voted stickers.

Midterm elections typically go poorly for an incumbent president’s party. But the 2026 election delivered the kind of resounding rebuke that feels more like a reckoning. Across America, a blue wave has crested deep into red territory, washing through many of President Trump’s formerly safe spaces, endangering his preferred candidates and putting his presidency—and his broader MAGA coalition—at risk of a historic collapse.

The last time South Carolina elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 1998, and until around 8 o’clock tonight, there wasn’t a lot of reason to think that streak would end any time soon. The Palmetto State has been steadfastly Republican, launching the careers of some of the biggest stars in GOP politics, including the late Senator Lindsey Graham. With Graham’s sister running to succeed him, a continuation of Republican dominance seemed all but assured.

Campaigns are billion-dollar contests to define the choice facing voters, but no election season this century has closed quite like this. President Trump approached his task with sarcasm and shiny objects, asking voters desperate for financial help to think only of him. If Republicans did not vote, they would “go to hell,” he said with a smile. If Republicans won the House and Senate, they would get a $5,000 check that even some of his allies dismissed as fiscal absurdity.

Photographs by Paola Chapdelaine
For decades, Texas has been the foundation of the Republican Electoral College map, holding up the red bloc of midwestern and southern states like a pedestal. Democrats have long dreamed of winning it back, only for their hopes to be crushed in election after election. And now, suddenly, James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa have accomplished what no Democrat could for more than a generation: winning statewide elections in Texas.

The president’s party is always expected to do poorly in midterm elections, just not this poorly. The results arriving tonight are a disaster for Donald Trump—the kind of complete repudiation that the president’s opponents have spent a decade pining for, but never quite achieving. On current trends, Democrats are not just poised to claim a large majority in the House of Representatives.