Kerry Eleveld

Just before a hopeful Kevin McCarthy finally got his hands on an all but meaningless gavel, he reflected on his historically tumultuous journey to the speakership.

“It just reminds me of what my father always told me — it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish,” McCarthy told reporters Friday evening, as he geared up for the 15th round of voting that would mercifully punctuate the GOP’s inaugural embarrassment.

Two new Democratic groups are gearing up to make life a living hell for Republicans as they assume the House majority, and the bizarro implosion of GOP Rep.-elect George Santos of New York has provided their first opening.

On Thursday, Courage for America and Unrig Our Economy teamed up to put the screws to House Republicans as they try to ignore the growing scandal that threatens their fragile five-seat majority.

As the Republican Party continues its post-midterm meltdown, Donald Trump is rising to the occasion.

Trump used his Truth Social platform Wednesday to remind the Republican Party that he plans to destroy it if it cuts him loose. He included no text, he simply blasted out an article from the pro-MAGA site American Greatness titled, “The Coming Split.

Let’s check in on Donald Trump’s favorability rating in Civiqs tracking as the fallout over his midterm Midas touch (ahem!) continues.

Oh, looky, Trump’s favorables have fallen 4 points since Election Day, from 38% to 34%, while his unfavorability has ticked up to 57%. And (almost comically) those who say they are “unsure” about Trump have risen since Jan. 6, 2021, from 3% to 9% now.

Donald Trump’s ‘major announcement’ Thursday truly exceeded the already exceedingly low expectations.

Trump digital trading cards! Priced to sell at just $99! An exclusive series of ‘really incredible artwork’ (i.e. hilarious parody) depicting, for instance, Trump as a strapping superhero bearing his sculpted chest, as a cowboy brandishing an American flag atop a white horse, and as an aviator-clad astronaut.

Donald Trump’s ‘major announcement’ Thursday truly exceeded the already exceedingly low expectations.

Trump digital trading cards! Priced to sell at just $99! An exclusive series of ‘really incredible artwork’ (i.e. hilarious parody) depicting, for instance, Trump as a strapping superhero bearing his sculpted chest, as a cowboy brandishing an American flag atop a white horse, and as an aviator-clad astronaut.

Three times in the last two weeks, the White House has directly and aggressively rebuked Trump-inspired attacks on the U.S. government and the rule of law.

The latest installment came in response to recently revealed Jan. 6-era texts in which Republican Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina urged the Trump White House to declare ‘Marshall’ law, also commonly known as martial law outside of GOP circles.

There’s nothing quite so vexing as being saddled with a losing candidate who most people don’t want to run nearly two years out from Election Day. But that’s precisely where the Republican Party finds itself—mostly because their ‘leaders’ were too spineless and craven to shiv Donald Trump when they had the chance (looking at you, Mitch).

Donald Trump has turned the Republican Party into a wasteland of losers, but they’re his loyal losers and that’s all that really matters. With his 30% base of voters and MAGA maniacs running most of the state parties, Trump will likely continue driving the GOP into the ground without paying even a smidge of a price for costing the party dearly in 2018, 2020, and once again in 2022.

The more we learn about the 2022 midterms, the clearer it becomes just how off the mark many pundits and strategists were in their preelection analysis of the dynamics.

That proved true for the fantastical “red wave,” the notion that abortion was “fading” as a potent issue, and the idea that economic concerns would dominate all other issues.

Young voters once again proved to be a critical part of the Democratic coalition according to a post-election analysis conducted by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University.

Attorney General Merrick Garland on Friday named longtime federal prosecutor Jack Smith special counsel to oversee two Justice Department probes of Donald Trump and determine whether he should be indicted.

Smith will now oversee two ongoing federal investigations into Trump’s involvement in the violent Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and his storage of highly sensitive materials at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida.

Attorney General Merrick Garland on Friday named longtime federal prosecutor Jack Smith special counsel to oversee two Justice Department probes of Donald Trump and determine whether he should be indicted.

Smith will now oversee two ongoing federal investigations into Trump’s involvement in the violent Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and his storage of highly sensitive materials at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida.

UPDATE: Friday, Nov 18, 2022 · 7:31:21 PM +00:00 · Kerry Eleveld

UPDATE: Garland has named Jack Smith, the department’s former public integrity chief, as special counsel.

Attorney General Merrick Garland on Friday appointed a special counsel to examine whether Donald Trump should be indicted on federal charges related to several Justice Department investigations, according to The Wall Street Journal.

As the ‘red wave’ narrative took hold in the Beltway, many prognosticators cited the country’s abysmal right track/wrong track numbers as evidence Democrats were destined for heavy losses.

It’s true that, heading into Election Day, the numbers were spectacularly bad, according to Civiqs tracking of the issue. Just 21% of registered voters said the country was on the “right track” compared to 68% saying it was on the “wrong track.

Donald Trump kicked off his 2024 presidential bid with such a low-energy harangue of a speech that attendees streamed toward the blocked exits while even Fox News eventually pulled coverage.

When Trump first ran for president in 2016, he promised his roaring hordes they were “going to win so much … you may even get tired of winning. You’re going to say, please, please it’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore.

If one looks to polling as a general guide to Election Day, the ‘red wave’ scenario sold to voters as inevitable isn’t exactly panning out. The last round of polls released over the weekend continues to suggest a highly competitive midterm election that will all come down to turnout in the end.

In that regard, Democrats got some good news with the final NBC News poll of the cycle showing Democrats and Republicans locked dead even on enthusiasm at 73%.

When the GOP-packed Supreme Court first overturned Roe v. Wade in June, Republican politicians and operatives developed a standard talking point: By November, the economy will be the overriding issue in the midterms.

After beating that drum for months, sure enough, it crept into conventional wisdom. For the last month, a wide swath of pundits and analysts alike—mostly male—have taken the GOP talking point as gospel.

When the GOP-packed Supreme Court first overturned Roe v. Wade in June, Republican politicians and operatives developed a standard talking point: By November, the economy will be the overriding issue in the midterms.

After beating that drum for months, sure enough, it crept into conventional wisdom. For the last month, a wide swath of pundits and analysts alike—mostly male—have taken the GOP talking point as gospel.

If a red wave is coming in the Senate, you wouldn’t know it by the final ad buys of the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) PAC.

Of the six states where SLF directed its money, four are states where Republicans are defending GOP seats and two are states where Republicans are hoping for pickups.

UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 3, 2022 · 7:35:43 PM +00:00 · Kerry Eleveld

UPDATE: NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Wednesday found essentially no change among suburban women in last couple months:

-Suburban women in late Aug/early Sept—52D/ 35R

-Suburban women now—53D/34 R  

Not to be outdone by all the garbage GOP polls swamping the aggregators, the Wall Street Journal used what was ostensibly a good poll of 1,500 people to make 

As former Trump aide Kellyanne Conway once suggested, if you don’t like the facts, just create alternative facts.

That’s exactly what Republicans and their pollsters are doing in several of this cycle’s most hotly contested races.

Take Georgia, for instance—until about Oct. 21 or 22, Democratic incumbent Sen.

The No. 3 House Republican, Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, was quick to extend best wishes to the husband of Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Paul Pelosi, who was violently attacked early Friday morning by an intruder in the couple’s San Francisco home.

“Wishing a full recovery for Paul from this absolutely horrific violent attack,” tweeted Stefanik.

It’s a departure from her norm.

Imagine waking up every morning and thinking, “If only it were 1952, things would be swell.”

Welcome to the world view of some two-thirds of Republicans. A new Public Religion Research Institute poll released Thursday added a twist to the right track/wrong track question, asking respondents whether they agreed with a clarifying follow-up: “Since the 1950’s, American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the worse.

Coming out of Tuesday night’s Pennsylvania Senate debate, many news outlets have focused on whether Keystone State voters will vote for a man who is still recovering from a stroke.

Democratic Senate nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, clearly displayed the after effects of the stroke he suffered in May. Fetterman’s speech was halting at times, and he generally kept his answers short and to the point.

Beltway journalists seem pretty convinced at this point that Republicans are resurgent in the closing weeks of the midterms while Democrats are in for a “shellacking.”

Much of that certainty seems to have been cemented by the New York Times/Siena college survey released early last week, which found Republicans leading Democrats by 3 points among likely voters in the generic ballot.

Rep. Val Demings of Florida ain’t playing in her bid to flip Florida’s Senate seat. The former Orlando police chief was uniquely suited to tackle head on two of this cycle’s top issues—abortion and crime—and she used them to wipe the floor with her Republican rival, Sen. Marco Rubio, at their sole debate Tuesday night.

It’s damn difficult just five weeks from Election Day to make a national policy move that is not only wildly popular but that also breaks through to the masses.

But that’s exactly what President Joe Biden appears to have done with his early steps to decriminalize marijuana announced early last week.

In the Republican race to put forward the most repulsive agenda possible, Sen. Rick Scott of Florida is definitely outpacing his GOP counterparts.

Sure, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina sent his colleagues running when he introduced a national 15-week abortion ban and pledged that a GOP-controlled Congress would give it a vote.

Analysts and pundits are finally picking up on the fact that the supposed red wave of 2022 was much more of a red mirage all along. The slow-but-steady downgrading of GOP prospects in November is everywhere. But nowhere is this more apparent than in the Senate, where Republican candidates are consistently underperforming and, in some cases, are downright comically bad (witness Dr. Mehmet Oz, whose political wizardry is already the stuff of legend).