Today's Liberal News

Jeff Singer

This Kentucky seat may be the Trumpiest congressional district in America

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide hits Kentucky. You can find our detailed calculations here, a large-size map of the results here, and our permanent, bookmarkable link for all 435 districts here.

Donald Trump won the Bluegrass State 62-36, which was pretty similar to his 63-33 performance in 2016, and he once again carried five of Kentucky’s six congressional districts.

Trump continued to sink in Indianapolis suburbs, but not far enough to flip key seat to Democrats

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide hits Indiana, where Republicans managed to hold onto a suburban seat that, like so many others, has been moving to the left during the Trump era. You can find our detailed calculations here, a large-size map of the results here, and our permanent, bookmarkable link for all 435 districts here.

Trump’s gains with Latinos were most pronounced in three heavily Cuban districts in South Florida

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide ventures down to Florida, where Republicans flipped two House seats and again captured the state’s 29 electoral votes. You can find our detailed calculations here, a large-size map of the results here, and our permanent, bookmarkable link for all 435 districts here.

Texas didn’t go as planned for Democrats, but the suburbs still moved sharply away from Republicans

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide goes to Texas, where the GOP gerrymander helped the party hold on to 23 of the state’s 36 U.S. House seats despite several Republican retirements. You can find our detailed calculations here, a large-size map of the results here, and our permanent, bookmarkable link for all 435 districts here.

This suburban Denver district is the best illustration of Colorado’s sharp leftward trend

The Centennial State supported Joe Biden 55-42 four years after it backed Hillary Clinton 48-43, making it the most lopsided presidential contest in Colorado since 1984, when Ronald Reagan won 63-35. It was also the first time Democrats carried the state by double digits since Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 landslide, though Biden’s improvement on Clinton numbers was due at least in part to the reduced appeal of third-party candidates.

Though different in many ways, Hawaii’s two House districts were almost identical in 2020 elections

The Aloha State went for Joe Biden 64-34 after backing Hillary Clinton 62-30, which actually made Hawaii the state where Donald Trump’s margin improved the most compared to four years earlier. That shift didn’t matter much in either of the state’s very blue congressional districts, though, and Biden carried them each 64-34. The seats voted almost identically in 2016 as well, with Clinton winning the 1st 63-31 and the 2nd 61-30, respectively.

This Oregon House district was the tightest in the 2016 presidential race, but not this time

The Beaver State backed Joe Biden 57-41, which was a bit larger than Hillary Clinton’s still convincing 52-41 showing from four years ago, and he improved on Clinton’s margin in all five congressional districts. Biden, who likely benefited from a decline in third party voting, also took the same four congressional districts Clinton won, and he made important gains in the competitive 4th District. (You can find a larger version of our map here.

Joe Biden improved in a key district in the Seattle suburbs that House Democrats flipped in 2018

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide heads to Washington. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available.

Joe Biden carried Washington 58-39, which was an improvement over Hillary Clinton’s 54-38 showing four years ago, due at least in part to fewer voters choosing third-party options.

Shrinking GOP margins in a rock-ribbed Republican district helped power Biden’s Wisconsin win

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide goes on to Wisconsin. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as we crunch new numbers.

Four years after Wisconsin backed Donald Trump 47.2-46.5, the Badger State swung just enough to the left to deliver a 49.6-48.8 win for Joe Biden.

Biden’s Michigan win was buoyed by improvements in almost every congressional district

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide heads to Michigan, which returned to the Democratic column after another competitive race. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available.

After supporting Donald Trump 47.6-47.

Ohio’s decade-old gerrymander still performed exactly as the GOP intended in 2020

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide goes to O-H-I-O. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available.

Despite Democratic hopes, Donald Trump’s 53-45 win in Ohio matched his 52-44 performance in this one-time swing state four years ago.

Democrats targeted a Little Rock House seat, but in the end, Republicans won easily

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide ventures to Arkansas, a former Democratic stronghold that has become one of the most heavily Republican states over the last decade. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available.

Once a Democratic bastion, West Virginia is now one of the GOP’s best states up and down the ballot

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide hits West Virginia, a once solidly blue state that has become one of the most Republican areas in the country. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available.

Alaska votes to become the first state in America to adopt the ‘top-four’ primary system

Alaska will be the first state in America to use the “top-four” primary system now that the Associated Press has called a victory for Measure 2, which passed by a narrow 50.5-49.5 margin. Starting in 2022, Measure 2 will require all the candidates for congressional, legislative, and statewide races to face off on one primary ballot, where contenders will have the option to identify themselves with a party label or be listed as “undeclared” or “nonpartisan.

Biden improved in South Carolina’s suburbs, but not enough to save a vulnerable freshman Democrat

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide makes its second stop in South Carolina, where Team Red enjoyed a stronger-than-expected year. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available. You can also click here to learn more about why this data is so difficult to come by.

New Civiqs survey finds top-two primary initiative failing in Florida

Civiqs’ new poll for Daily Kos finds 51% of Florida voters opposing Amendment 3, which would establish a top-two primary system in state-level races like governor and state legislature starting in 2024, while only 36% support it; respondents also favor Joe Biden 51-47 here. Amendment 3 would not apply to federal elections such as the presidential or congressional contests due to limitations on the scope of any single initiative.

Once again, Republicans are growing anxious about losing a Senate seat in Texas

The final two weeks of the 2020 election are upon us, and with the political climate continuing to favor Democrats overall, Daily Kos Elections is moving our race ratings in 11 more contests—nine shift to the left, while two move towards the GOP. We also now have a total of 11 GOP-held Senate seats rated as Lean Republican or better for Democrats. You can find all our Senate, gubernatorial, and House ratings at each link.

The GOP’s House triage continues as national Republicans cancel ads in Maine seat Trump easily won

Politico’s Ally Mutnick reported on Thursday evening that the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund has cut $450,000 from its planned ad buy in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District for Oct. 14 to Oct. 20 in what she called “a sign of no confidence in GOP nominee Dale Crafts.”

Unfortunately for Crafts, the CLF isn’t alone in making this determination about his prospects for unseating freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.

Sen. Ed Markey wins renomination after hard-fought Massachusetts primary battle

Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey prevailed in an expensive Democratic primary battle on Tuesday by winning renomination against Rep. Joe Kennedy III, who is a member of what is arguably America’s most prominent political family. While many votes remain to be counted, Kennedy’s campaign has confirmed that he has conceded to the incumbent. Markey will have no trouble in the general election in this very blue state.

Kennedy, who is the grandson of Robert F.